Akshita Jhalani
Crypto Analyst
Today is the day. SpaceX has officially started trading on Nasdaq after investors poured $75 billion into what is now the largest IPO in history. And as someone who tracks crypto markets daily, I can tell you, the implications for Bitcoin are real, and they cut in both directions.
The Bullish Case for BTC
Here's a theory I've been seeing gain traction in crypto circles. Over the past few weeks, Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows of more than $5 billion, dragging BTC below $60,000 at one point. A growing number of analysts believe a chunk of that selling was driven by investors pulling capital out of crypto to get in on the SpaceX IPO.
If that's true, some of that money could now flow back into the market. That would be a meaningful tailwind for Bitcoin, which was hovering around $63,000 as of today.
On top of that, a blockbuster IPO debut tends to signal broad market confidence. When big money is feeling good, it often spills into risk assets, and Bitcoin sits right at the top of that category.
The Bearish Warning Sign
But here's where I'd pump the brakes a little. Pseudonymous analyst Doctor Profit, who correctly called Bitcoin's selloff since October, has raised a flag worth paying attention to.
His argument: record‑breaking IPOs historically show up near market tops, not new beginnings. He pointed to Saudi Aramco's IPO in 2019, which arrived just ten weeks before the COVID crash wiped out global markets. Looking at the five largest IPOs in history, Saudi Aramco, Alibaba, SoftBank, NTT Mobile Communication Network, and Visa, four of them landed close to notable highs in the S&P 500.
The pattern is uncomfortable to ignore. If SpaceX's $75 billion raise is a sign that euphoria has peaked, stocks could face renewed selling pressure soon. And when equities fall, Bitcoin rarely escapes the same fate.
What the Crypto Charts Are Saying Right Now
SpaceX's crypto‑traded IPO contracts opened with volatility, falling sharply before recovering, and are now pointing toward a valuation of roughly $2.4 trillion. That's about 35% above the IPO price, which signals strong early demand.
Bitcoin is holding near $63,000 for now, but analysts warn the level underneath, around $60,000, is still a real risk if sentiment turns. That floor was briefly breached last week before buyers stepped back in.
Other Market Moves to Watch
Separately, BlackRock has filed to list a new Bitcoin income ETF that generates yield by selling call options on its existing spot Bitcoin holdings. That's expected to debut next week and could bring additional institutional attention to BTC.
Metaplanet, the Japanese firm building a Bitcoin‑focused financial empire, also made headlines today after acquiring Siiibo Securities for $13.1 million, its first step into regulated securities infrastructure.
My Takeaway
I'm watching SpaceX's Nasdaq debut very carefully today. The next 24 to 48 hours will tell us a lot about whether this historic IPO is a rising tide that lifts all boats, or the bell at the top of the market. Either way, stay alert.