Akshita Jhalani
Crypto Analyst
I'll be honest, Thursday's price action told a very specific story, and it's one that altcoin holders won't enjoy reading.
Bitcoin rose 2.4% in 24 hours to trade recently around $62,800. The BTC price has held its 200‑week moving average even as other majors such as XRP, ether and solana trade below this key technical line, suggesting strengthening bearish momentum in altcoins.
The 200‑week moving average is one of the most closely watched long‑term indicators in the market. Historically, holding above it has separated genuine bear markets from temporary corrections. Bitcoin is holding it. Ethereum, Solana and XRP are not. That gap matters enormously.
Bitcoin Dominance Is Climbing Back
The dominance chart is telling the same story the price chart is.
BTC's dominance rate has risen to 59% from last week's low of 57.9%, a sign of renewed capital flowing into the largest cryptocurrency as major altcoins struggle.
When dominance rises alongside price, it usually means capital is actively rotating from altcoins into Bitcoin, not just holding still. That's the dynamic playing out this week. Investors aren't leaving crypto. They're just consolidating into the asset they trust most during uncertainty.
Leverage Is Getting Squeezed, Not Added
One of the more interesting signals today is what's happening in the derivatives market. There's recovery in price, but not much new speculation behind it.
Bullish crypto futures bets continue to get squeezed. Over the past 24 hours, exchanges liquidated $378 million, with more than $207 million coming from long positions. Open interest in bitcoin and ether futures has remained largely stable, indicating little appetite for fresh leverage.
A price rise on stable open interest is actually a healthier signal than a price rise driven by fresh leverage. It suggests the move is more organic, driven by genuine buying rather than speculative positioning that can unwind just as fast as it appeared.
The SpaceX IPO Hype Is Creating Chaos
The wildest story in today's market isn't Bitcoin or Ethereum, it's what the SpaceX IPO is doing to smaller tokens.
Velvet's VELVET token has surged roughly 800% in 30 days, more than doubling in the past 24 hours alone. The token is riding the rush into pre‑IPO perpetual futures, synthetic contracts that let traders bet on the valuations of SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic before the shares start trading. The timing tracks SpaceX's expected June 12 debut at a reported $1.75 trillion valuation.
But I want to be clear about the risks here, because they're real.
The contracts carry real risk. They are synthetic derivatives that convey no shares, dividends or voting rights, and their prices come from data feeds that can be thin and drift far from actual funding rounds or any eventual IPO price. A synthetic SpaceX contract on Hyperliquid flash‑crashed about 45% on Thursday.
The VELVET token itself is drawing scrutiny. The protocol holds about $653,000 in deposits against a $339 million market cap, a wide gap between the token's valuation and the money actually using the platform.
What I'm Watching From Here
The SpaceX IPO tomorrow is the event everyone has circled. Bitcoin's ability to hold the 200‑week average through that volatility is the technical test that matters most. If it holds cleanly, the bull case for a broader recovery gets meaningfully stronger. If it breaks, the altcoin pain gets a lot worse before it gets better.