Akshita Jhalani
Crypto Analyst
I have spent the past two weeks watching crypto markets obsess over a rocket company. Today, the waiting ends. SpaceX prices its Nasdaq IPO this afternoon, and I genuinely cannot remember the last time a single traditional market event held this much direct relevance for Bitcoin traders.
What the Official Numbers Say
Elon Musk's SpaceX sets the price of its Friday IPO on Nasdaq today. The company is currently valued at roughly $1.77 trillion.
That $1.77 trillion figure is the official, book‑built valuation that investment banks have landed on after weeks of roadshows and investor meetings. It is the number that will appear in every headline when the price is confirmed tonight.
But the onchain markets are not buying it.
Why Polymarket and Ventuals Think $2 Trillion Is the Real Number
This is the part that has grabbed my attention all morning. Three separate decentralised markets have independently converged on a valuation well above what the banks are pricing.
That gap is evident from three markets: onchain perpetuals futures offered by Ventuals and trade.xyz, both running on Hyperliquid, and Polymarket's implied first‑day close. These have all converged on the $1.8 trillion to $2.1 trillion range, according to data source Allium.
Right now, traders on Polymarket assign a 64% chance that SpaceX will close its first trading day above a $2 trillion valuation. A close above $3 trillion gets a 5% chance.
The market expects a strong debut. Not a blowout, but a meaningful pop above the official price. That 64% probability at $2 trillion tells you the crowd believes the books are being priced conservatively, as they often are for the largest IPOs.
The Bitcoin Question That Everyone Is Actually Asking
Here is what I know matters most to the readers following me right now. Does this IPO drain money from Bitcoin, and does the listing reverse that once it is done?
For bitcoin traders, the IPO serves as a real‑world test of the dominant narrative: that the offering has been draining risk capital from crypto, contributing to the recent price decline. If that theory holds, capital should flow back into bitcoin and crypto once the IPO is out of the way and the initial allocation frenzy subsides.
I have been sceptical of the clean narrative that SpaceX caused Bitcoin's drop. The ETF outflow data and the inflation‑driven rate hike fears look like bigger culprits to me. But I cannot dismiss the possibility that some retail capital genuinely rotated from crypto into the SpaceX allocation queue, and some of that could come back.
The Corporate Bitcoin Buying Drought Nobody Is Talking About
One story I want to flag that is getting buried by all the SpaceX coverage is what is happening with corporate Bitcoin treasury buying.
Bitcoin has lost buyers on two fronts. The exodus from spot ETFs is well documented. Less discussed is the equally steep drop in buying by digital asset treasury companies.
Strategy sold Bitcoin for the first time in four years last week. Corporate BTC purchases have fallen from roughly $500 million per day at the peak to almost negligible. That is a structural demand shock that no amount of SpaceX narrative resolution fixes on its own.
What the Chart Is Telling Me Right Now
The strong positive correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq broke down in May, as the Nasdaq rallied sharply while Bitcoin fell. However, the Nasdaq has turned lower this month, hinting at a potential realignment.
Trading firm Wintermute noted that the correlation between the two assets is particularly strong during Nasdaq declines. If that dynamic still holds, BTC risks sliding below $60,000.
Tonight, SpaceX gets its price. Tomorrow, it starts trading. The theory that crypto recovers once the IPO overhang clears will be tested in real time, and I will be watching every tick of both Bitcoin and SPCX simultaneously.