Akshita Jhalani
Crypto Analyst
I'm going to be straight with you about what Friday morning in crypto felt like. Bitcoin dropped to $58,100, its weakest level since September 2024, and the market structure underneath it looked genuinely fragile. The bounce that followed brought it back toward $59,700, but nothing about the way that recovery happened told me the worst is definitively over.
This is where we are heading into the close of crypto's worst first half in recent memory.
The Drop That Mattered
Bitcoin fell as low as $58,100 during Thursday's session before recovering. That low point represents a level not seen since September 2024, a full 21 months ago, predating the U.S. election rally that ignited the entire bull cycle. The fact that we've retraced that far is not a small thing.
The bounce to $59,700 happened, and I'll acknowledge it. But it happened on a Friday, heading into weekend liquidity that is historically thinner and more volatile. That's not the conditions where I want to see a critical support test resolve.
Ethereum told an even worse story. While Bitcoin managed a partial recovery, ETH dropped a further 1% and extended its losing streak to three consecutive sessions, recently trading near $1,550. When Ethereum can't even stage a sympathy bounce while Bitcoin recovers, it tells me something about where actual demand sits right now.
$1 Billion in Positions Wiped Out
The derivatives data from the past 24 hours is the clearest picture of the damage. Over $1 billion in leveraged futures positions were liquidated, with long positions accounting for the majority of that pain. Traders who had been betting on a recovery got forced out of their positions as price pushed lower.
What concerns me more than the liquidations themselves is what happened to Bitcoin futures open interest. It rose for a second consecutive day to 778,000 BTC, jumping sharply from recent lows near 730,000 BTC. That surge in open interest happened during Thursday's late selloff, which means traders were actively opening new short positions into the drop, not covering. Bears are adding, not retreating.
The one‑week Bitcoin options skew on Deribit is now approaching 30 volatility points in favor of puts. That's a significant premium for downside protection, and it's been climbing all week. I also saw block flow activity in $53,000 put options expiring July 10, someone is paying to hedge Bitcoin going substantially lower within two weeks.
The Only Real Bright Spots
I want to give credit where it's due because the picture wasn't entirely red. Aave was the clear standout, gaining as much as 6.8% since midnight after CoinDesk reported that Kraken is in talks to acquire a 15% stake in the DeFi lender. That's a deal‑specific catalyst driving genuine buying interest and the token has now gained 17% over the past week.
Solana added 2% and traded near $68.95 after tumbling to $64 during Thursday's worst moments. Those two tokens were the exceptions in a market where AI tokens, Hyperliquid, and Ethena all continued declining.
What the Derivatives Are Telling Me About What Comes Next
I've been watching volatility indexes closely all week. Bitcoin's implied volatility jumped to 53% Friday morning, its highest since June 7 and a sharp rise from the 39% low recorded just ten days ago. Ethereum's equivalent reached 66%. Rising implied volatility with falling prices typically means the market is actively pricing in further downside, not stabilization.
The one saving grace is that equity market stress measures, specifically the VIX, remain within normal ranges near 20%, suggesting that whatever is happening in crypto right now hasn't yet become a broader financial market crisis. But the correlation between crypto and tech stocks has been tight all year. If Nasdaq futures continue their Friday weakness, that buffer erodes quickly.
Friday's close matters enormously. Crypto is ending its worst first half in years right here. What happens in the next 24 hours will set the tone for how July begins.