Sophia Bennett
Crypto Analyst
Bitcoin isn't crashing. It isn't surging. It's just sitting still, and there are very deliberate forces keeping it that way.
Bitcoin has been closely tracking the 2026 realized price, currently around $76,200, since the beginning of April. The realized price reflects the average cost at which all bitcoin that moved this year was last transacted. It's essentially the collective break‑even point for 2026 buyers, and right now, Bitcoin is hugging that line like a safety net.
The Floor That Just Held
The weekend brought a brief scare. Bitcoin briefly dropped to $74,500 before rebounding from its 128‑day moving average, a closely watched technical level.
That bounce wasn't random. It reinforced a pattern analysts have been tracking all year. In February, when bitcoin plunged to nearly $60,000, the market found support close to the 2023 realized price, reinforcing the growing importance of these cohort cost‑basis levels in shaping market structure.
The message from the charts is consistent: these onchain cost‑basis levels are acting as genuine support. When Bitcoin hits them, buyers step in.
Two Walls Blocking the Upside
While the floor is holding, the ceiling is firm too. Bitcoin is currently trading below two major onchain metrics clustered around $77,000, the true market mean and the short‑term holder cost basis. Both levels are widely monitored as indicators of broader market sentiment and short‑term positioning.
Until Bitcoin breaks cleanly above $77,000, these two levels will continue to act as overhead resistance. Every rally into that zone is likely to face selling pressure from holders who bought at these prices and are simply looking to break even.
The Options Expiry Putting a Lid on Volatility
Here's where it gets really interesting. Bitcoin isn't just being contained by onchain levels, the derivatives market is actively suppressing movement too.
Attention is turning toward the May 29 options expiry on Deribit, where roughly $6.6 billion in open interest is set to expire. The largest concentration of call options, about $600 million, sits at the $80,000 strike price. The largest put positioning is concentrated at $75,000, with around $377 million in open interest.
Market makers and traders are incentivised to keep price action pinned between these levels as expiry approaches, contributing to the current period of compressed volatility.
In plain terms: the people with the biggest positions benefit from Bitcoin staying between $75,000 and $80,000 until Friday. And right now, that's exactly what's happening.
15% of All Bitcoin Is Stuck in This Range
The concentration of supply in this zone makes the situation even stickier. Glassnode data shows that more than 15% of bitcoin's circulating supply has been acquired between $74,000 and $83,000, highlighting just how compressed the current trading range has become and how much supply is concentrated around these levels.
That's an enormous amount of Bitcoin sitting at or near its cost basis. Owners aren't panicking, but they're not aggressively buying either. Everyone is just waiting.
What Happens After Friday
Once the May 29 options expiry clears, the artificial pressure keeping Bitcoin range‑bound should ease. When it does, the next directional move, up or down, could be sharp. Until then, the market is in a holding pattern with very clearly defined boundaries. Watch $74,500 on the downside and $77,000 on the upside. A decisive break of either tells the whole story.