Sophia Bennett
Crypto Analyst
Crypto and Asian stocks caught an unexpected break on Monday, and the trigger had nothing to do with blockchain.
Futures tied to West Texas Intermediate crude oil dropped more than 5% to around $91 per barrel, extending a steep slide from last Wednesday's high above $104. Asian equities rallied in response, with Japan's Nikkei rising nearly 3% in early trade, India's Nifty climbing over 1%, and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 adding 0.4%.
The mood across risk assets improved almost instantly.
Bitcoin Climbs Back Above $77,000
Bitcoin was trading near $77,200 at 6:35 UTC, up 0.4% from midnight, sitting just above its widely tracked 50‑day simple moving average of around $76,940. Traders and chart analysts monitor this level closely, with sustained breakouts above it typically viewed as bullish.
That's not a dramatic surge, but after a bruising week that saw Bitcoin drop to $74,300, even a modest hold above a key technical level counts as progress.
Other major cryptocurrencies were also modestly higher, XRP and Solana rose 0.6% or more, while Ether gained 0.4%. However, all three continued to trade below their respective 50‑day moving averages, lagging Bitcoin on this metric.
The Iran Factor Is Driving Everything
The real story isn't crypto, it's geopolitics. These moves follow weekend reports that a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint that accounted for over 20% of global oil flows before the Iran war began in late February, was in its final stages.
When that waterway opens, oil supply normalises, inflation pressure eases, and risk appetite returns. That's exactly what markets are pricing in right now.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Washington and Iranian negotiators have "a pretty solid thing on the table" and that a deal to end the conflict could be reached Monday. He said the U.S. was ready to exhaust every diplomatic option but would pursue other means if a good deal could not be reached.
Not Everyone Is Celebrating Yet
Despite the improved mood, analysts aren't ready to call this a recovery. The ETF picture is still worrying.
"For crypto, the key signal is whether ETF outflows slow. Bitcoin can absorb some institutional selling if stablecoin liquidity remains firm and long‑term holders stay patient. Sustained ETF redemptions would make every rally harder to hold," said Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN.
That's the uncomfortable reality. Oil falling helps sentiment, but $2 billion in ETF outflows over two weeks isn't erased by a single good morning.
The Deal Needs to Actually Close
India‑based exchange CoinSwitch put it plainly. "The sentiments improved after reports of progress in U.S.–Iran peace talks, including a possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, helping BTC rebound toward $77K. Still, the deal is not finalised, so traders are not fully risk‑on yet. Exchange data also remains a watchpoint, with 18,528 BTC moving net into centralised exchanges, suggesting potential sell‑side pressure," the exchange said.
Hope is in the air. But the market has been burned by almost‑deals before. Until the ink is dry on a Strait of Hormuz agreement, every rally remains fragile, and traders know it.