Akshita Jhalani
Crypto Analyst
I have been tracking Bitcoin's price action closely since last week's $1.6 billion liquidation event, and Tuesday morning gave the market something it badly needed: a moment to breathe.
Bitcoin trades near $63,300, up about 0.8% over 24 hours, and ether near $1,691, up 1.8%. BNB and Solana lead the majors at roughly 2.3%.
That is not a recovery. Every large token is still deep in the red on the week. But it was the first session in a while that did not feel like the floor was falling away.
Tech Rebounded Overnight, Crypto Did Not Follow
This is the part that concerns me most right now. AI stocks had a strong session, chipmakers surged, and Asian markets rallied hard overnight. Crypto barely moved.
MSCI's Asia Pacific gauge rose 2.5%, South Korea's Kospi climbed as much as 8% with SK Hynix up 11%, and the Nasdaq 100 added 1.6% as a semiconductor gauge gained more than 5%. Crypto got none of that action.
Every large token is still deep in the red on the week, with bitcoin off 10.8%, ether down 16%, Solana and Hyperliquid both off about 17%, and dogecoin down 14.7%.
When crypto sells off alongside tech and then fails to bounce when tech recovers, that decoupling tells you something important about the current state of sentiment.
SpaceX Is Now Crypto's Most Important Wildcard
Major market‑maker Wintermute said in a Tuesday note that a catalyst for bitcoin and the broader crypto market is SpaceX's stock market debut on June 12.
Wintermute said last week's drop was about a missing bid, not Strategy's bitcoin sale. On its OTC desk, retail had been selling for a while and moving into stocks. US institutions were offloading the bitcoin they bought a month ago. Some of the recent selling in AI stocks looks like investors raising cash for a run of huge IPOs, with SpaceX first.
There is also no chart to lean on. Bitcoin never traded much between $50,000 and $59,000 on the way up in 2024, so there are no real support levels underneath.
That last point is the one I keep coming back to. If $60,000 breaks with conviction, the next meaningful support is a price range Bitcoin barely touches on the way up, which means thin order books and fast moves.
The Fear Gauge Is Cooling, That Is Encouraging
Volmex's 30‑day implied volatility index has declined sharply to an annualized 47%, down from a Friday high near 60%. The drop signals that the panic‑driven buying of options is cooling off. Like the S&P 500 VIX, the BVIV typically moves inversely to spot price.
MVRV Says We Are in Buy Territory, But Flows Need to Follow
Onchain firm Santiment says the average recent buyer is now underwater on bitcoin by 10%, ether by 12%, chainlink by 9%, XRP by 8% and cardano by roughly 18%, levels where selling historically exhausts. However, a bounce off cheap valuations needs fresh inflows to become a trend.
Tether's market cap actually declined 0.7% to $186.89 billion last week, its third consecutive weekly drop, suggesting that a meaningful portion of the outflow from BTC may have exited the market entirely rather than parking in stablecoins.
Japan Adds Another Risk Layer
One underreported story that I think the market is not fully pricing yet is Japan.
The Bank of Japan is widely expected to raise its policy rate to 1.0% from 0.75% at its June 15‑16 meeting. Higher Japanese interest rates reduce the attractiveness of the yen carry trade, where investors borrow in yen and deploy into riskier assets including crypto. As funding costs rise, some investors may unwind these positions, a development generally viewed as bearish for risk assets.
Thursday is SpaceX day. If that listing goes well and risk appetite returns, Bitcoin has a genuine shot at reclaiming territory. If it disappoints, the market underneath $60,000 is very thin. I am watching June 12 more closely than any on‑chain indicator right now.