Sophia Bennett
Crypto Analyst
Arthur Hayes is not hedging. The BitMEX co‑founder and Chief Investment Officer of Maelstrom has made his position clear: Bitcoin has already bottomed, the bull market has resumed, and the only question now is how fast prices move.
Hayes argues that Bitcoin bottomed near $60,000 earlier this year and is now on track to surpass its prior high and reach $126,000, the level Bitcoin hit in October 2025 before a brutal correction cut prices nearly in half.
For anyone who lived through that crash, that is a bold claim. Hayes is making it anyway.
The $90,000 Trigger That Could Start the Explosion
Hayes has a specific level in mind that he believes will act as the catalyst for the next big leg up, and it is closer than many traders think.
He says a break above $90,000 could trigger an explosive rally as call‑option sellers are forced to buy Bitcoin to hedge their positions, a classic gamma squeeze that accelerates price moves beyond what fundamentals alone would justify.
Bitcoin hit an all‑time high of $126,000 in October 2025, then crashed 52% to $60,000 by early February, a decline that shook confidence across the entire market and left many investors questioning whether the cycle had already peaked.
Hayes believes that selloff was low. The recovery since then, he argues, is not a dead‑cat bounce, it is the start of something bigger.
Why AI Spending and Liquidity Are the Real Drivers
Hayes does not frame this as a purely crypto story. His bull case is rooted in broader macroeconomic forces that most Bitcoin analysts underweight.
He ties the broader bull case to inflationary spending on AI infrastructure and war‑related costs, two categories of government and corporate expenditure that are expanding rapidly and injecting liquidity into the financial system in ways that historically benefit hard assets like Bitcoin.
The argument is simple: when governments and corporations spend aggressively, money finds its way into scarce assets. Bitcoin, in Hayes' view, is the clearest beneficiary of that dynamic right now.
Where He Is Putting His Own Money
Hayes is not just writing about this, he is positioned for it.
Hayes disclosed Maelstrom's positions in HYPE and ZEC, and a growing bet on NEAR, while warning that an overhyped AI IPO or a successful anti‑AI political platform in the United States could end the crypto rally.
The NEAR position is notable. It signals Hayes sees value not just in Bitcoin but in the layer‑one ecosystem more broadly, a bet that the next leg of the bull market will lift multiple assets simultaneously.
One Political Speed Bump to Watch
Hayes is bullish, but not blindly so. He has identified one near‑term risk on the calendar worth monitoring.
He described the November 2026 midterm elections as a potential "slight speed bump" before the rally fully extends, but stopped well short of calling it a reversal risk.
His overall message is direct and unambiguous. "It's a bull market; close your eyes and press the button," Hayes wrote. "There will be a time to sell, but it ain't right now."
What the Market Looks Like Right Now
Bitcoin is currently trading around $80,800,,well below the $90,000 level Hayes identifies as the breakout trigger.
Bitcoin and ether fell as escalating Middle East tensions lifted oil and the dollar, though BTC continued to hold above a key bull market level.
The gap between where Bitcoin sits today and where Hayes expects it to go is significant. But for a market that crashed from $126,000 to $60,000 in just a few months, closing that gap would not be the most dramatic thing Bitcoin has ever done. Not even close.