Akshita Jhalani
Crypto Analyst
I'll be upfront about something. Going into this week, I flagged the Bank of Japan rate decision as one of the biggest macro risks for Bitcoin. Yen short positions were at nine‑year highs. The 2024 BOJ hike flashback was real. Everyone was bracing for impact.
The impact didn't come. At least not yet.
Bitcoin climbed from around $65,600 during Asian trading hours to above $66,500 during the European session after the BOJ raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 1%, the highest level since 1995. Rather than sparking a yen short squeeze and a sell‑off in risk assets, markets absorbed the move calmly. Bitcoin added roughly 1.5% in 24 hours and is continuing its slow but steady recovery from the June 5 low below $60,000.
The Altcoin Winners Today
The real action on Monday wasn't in Bitcoin, it was in a handful of altcoins that broke out cleanly while everything else was still finding its footing.
Stellar's XLM, Injective's INJ, and Uniswap's UNI each gained between 13% and 16%, ranking among the best performers across the entire top 100 cryptocurrencies by market cap. That's a significant move for three tokens with very different narratives.
UNI's jump is the most interesting to me. Standard Chartered initiated coverage of Uniswap and set a long‑term price target of $100 for the token by 2030. When a bank that size puts a formal price target on a DeFi protocol, the market pays attention, and today it clearly did.
Derivatives Are Telling a Recovery Story
The derivatives data I'm looking at paints a picture I haven't seen in weeks. Total 24‑hour trading volume jumped 51% to $207 billion. Open interest across the market rose 2.4% to $113.41 billion. Liquidations surged 64% to $561 million, with the bulk of those being short positions getting forced out.
That last number matters. When shorts are being liquidated at scale, it means the people who were betting against this recovery are now getting squeezed out. That typically adds fuel to the rally rather than capping it.
Bitcoin futures open interest has risen to 747,000 BTC, a third consecutive daily increase and the highest reading since June 4. Perpetual funding rates are hovering near zero, which tells me this isn't speculative excess. It's a market coming back to life in a measured, healthier way than the frantic moves we saw in both directions over the past two weeks.
The AVAX Divergence
Not every token is sharing in the optimism. Avalanche's AVAX was actually the most‑discussed token on Monday, but the conversation was decidedly negative. The ratio of positive to negative commentary fell to around 0.85 according to Santiment, meaning bearish posts now outnumber bullish ones.
The core concern is mindshare. Developers and users are seen gravitating toward Solana and Sui, leaving AVAX struggling to hold relevance despite its institutional partnerships and subnet architecture. AVAX currently trades around $6.88, well below the nearly $10 it held just a month ago.
There's a contrarian angle worth noting though. Santiment flagged that extreme negative sentiment in AVAX mirrors the same setup it identified in XRP days before XRP broke out 8%. Markets can reverse hard when crowds turn uniformly bearish.
Where Things Stand Right Now
Bitcoin holding above $66,000, altcoins breaking out, derivatives normalising, and a BOJ hike absorbed without disaster, today feels like the first properly clean trading session in weeks. The fear that defined the first half of June has meaningfully pulled back.
Whether that relief becomes a real trend still depends on ETF flows turning positive and larger institutional buyers returning. But for the first time this month, the momentum is clearly pointing in the right direction.